The fifth and final phase of the great Indian elections are over. Voters from 86 constituencies spread over seven states and two union territories exercised their franchise today. The turnout has been mixed with West Bengal clocking an impressive 70% while Uttar Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir posting around 50% turnout.
Yogendra Yadav, Political Analyst, said that there is no nationwide trend that sweeps across the states. “In that sense, election 2009 is very much inline with the elections that have taken place in the last 15 years or so,” he added. Lok Sabha 2009 may not look very different from Lok Sabha 2004, he said.
Overall, Yadav said the UPA has a slight advantage over the NDA. "One because their vote share is higher. Secondly, because they have access to a much larger pool. In the government formation game, the UPA has more than one route available to it. The NDA has a route but it is a very thin route and every piece must fall in place. Normally in politics, everything doesn’t fall in place."
Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Yogendra Yadav on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: On the basis of data that you have been able to look at so far, is there a national trend that is emerging? Is there some sort of a national wave that you would give significance to?
A: That’s in fact the most striking thing. There is no nationwide trend that sweeps across the states and in that sense election 2009 is very much inline with elections that have taken place in the last 15 years or so. You could say you have 28 elections in 28 states. So, state is very much the center of political universe, nation is simply a sum total of what happens in states.
Q: How would you compare 2004 to 2009? What are the big differences or the big similarities that you observed?
A: For all the drama that we have been through, you might actually be back to square one if you simply take into account the change in alliances, the fact that RJD and others have left UPA, take their seats out, take Naveen seat out of the NDA and so on and just look at what the picture might have been in 2004. Things have changed at the state level but you’re losing one state, gaining another state—the sum total may not be very different. Hence, Lok Sabha 2009 may not look very different from Lok Sabha 2004.
Q: Let us talk about the surprises now and because we’re talking state-wise, let us talk about the surprises that Maharashtra has thrown up because there you’re actually seeing the NCP-Congress alliance fairing better?
A: That’s right. Political common sense suggested that it will be evenly spilt like last time but the data that we’ve gathered and we have tried to check it very closely, says that UPA, which is to say Congress and NCP has a clear advantage, a decisive edge, it is not just an edge of 2-3 percentage points, it is a very clear edge.
Q: Were you expecting this?
A: I have been saying an edge to NCP-Congress but when I looked at the figures I was surprised because the edge is much bigger than I would have thought. It seems that both in Vidarbha where the NDA had swept last time, there the NCP has recovered and the BJP-Shiv Sena has not been able to match them in Mumbai. MNS has cost the BJP-Shiv Sena something.
Q: One was expecting the Congress to actually fare worse than 2004 but you’re saying that they’re not being dented in Andhra Pradesh?
A: The Congress is faring worse than 2004. However, in 2004, if you take them with their allies, they had 34 seats, so they clearly coming down substantially from there. But, I think, coming of Prajarayam Party seems to have damaged both Congress and TDP equally. Now, when you’re damaged equally whoever was ahead tends to remain ahead and that’s what it seems has happened. In Telangana, it is a very close contest between grand alliance and the Congress, in Lok Sabha Congress may have an advantage but in the rest of the state, Congress has a clear edge. In Lok Sabha, therefore, we expect the Congress to emerge as the largest party. However, for the Vidhan Sabha, it is just too close to call.
Q: What about Uttar Pradesh because that is the big one that everybody is watching out for? Where in the stakes do you actually see the Congress and the BJP?
A: For UP, we don’t have figures today because it is a post-poll survey and we are not interviewing people outside the polling stations. So, our people will go this evening and actually begin the interviews. However, so far, it is clear that the Congress and BJP have gained in terms of vote share. But it would not translate that much.
Q: Would it be a significant gain for the Congress in terms of vote share?
A: It is a significant gain indeed and it pushes the Congress above the 15% threshold where the Congress can begin its recovery. But I don’t see the rank order changing, which is the same. BSP would be number one, Samajwadi Party would be number two, BJP number three and Congress would be number four. The last three may have come closer to each other. The final outcome can be very messy. But it would surprise me if the rank order were to be changed substantially.
Q: What is the gut feeling that you are getting about Tamil Nadu at this point?
A: My gut feeling based on no survey or anything is that in sheer arithmetic, the Jayalalithaa-led alliance is a much larger alliance. They have at least a four to five point advantage to begin with even if popularity were not to favour Jayalalithaa. If popularity were to favour her, then it is a landslide in her favour.
Q: Do you actually see the Congress being able to put things together with Jayalalithaa post-poll because that seems to be the picture that is emerging at this point?
A: Jayalalithaa’s biggest anxiety and demand would be that Karunanidhi’s government be dismissed.
Q: And the Congress could do that by withdrawing support.
A: Exactly. They don’t even need to dismiss because dismissal is constitutionally not permissible. Congress has that ace up its sleeve. It can simply withdraw support. So, Congress would start this bargain with a slight advantage.
Q: On balance, is it an advantage for UPA at this point?
A: For two reasons, one because their vote share is higher. Secondly, because they have access to a much larger pool. In the government formation game, the UPA has more than one route available to it. The NDA has a route but it is a very thin route and every piece must fall in place. Normally in politics, everything
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