Andhra Pradesh could swing it for UPA: Exit polls
Exit polls aired by TV channels have pointed to Congress emerging as the single largest party and best placed to form a government along Congress supporters during an election rally. (TOI Photo)with its allies. BJP and its NDA partners are not too far behind with polls pointing to a close contest between the alliance and Congress-led UPA.
Congress seems to have bolstered its prospects, according to exit polls, by staving off a mauling in Andhra Pradesh with projections in the range of 22 to 29 seats of the 42 in the state. If this prediction turns out to be correct, it could well be a significant marker in the elections as Congress would have blunted the combined TDP-TRS-Left front.
The TDP was seen to have lost votes, with the CNN-IBN exit poll suggesting a steep drop of 7% in its vote share. The fledgling Praja Rajyam Party is seen to have dipped into the vote share of both Congress and TDP, particularly in the coastal areas. The sold backing of dalit and Muslim voters could be an important factor in keeping Congress afloat in the state. But projections for the state assembly point to a hung verdict.
Exit polls also show that J Jayalalitha's AIADMK-led alliance is not sweeping the elections. The Star poll shows DMK and Congress winning 25 seats to AIADMK's nine, the PMK-MDMK three and CPM two. Only India TV gave the AIADMK alliance winning 26 seats even though the channel also gave a lead to Congress in Andhra Pradesh. There was good news for BJP in Madhya Pradesh where exit polls pointed to a near-sweep.
According to exit poll pointers, BJP has been hurt by its poor performance in states like Punjab where its alliance with Shiromani Akali Dal is floundering. The party, however, seems poised to do well in states like Bihar where, in partnership with JD(U), it is likely to sweep RJD boss Lalu Prasad off centrestage. The party may well be poised to win as many as 30-odd of the 40 seats in the state.
BJP is also doing well in Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand where it has improved its positions. The exit polls show BJP winning between 19-20 seats in Gujarat while Congress gets around 6-7 seats. In Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand, projections show between 8-9 seats for BJP. In Assam, polls point to eight seats for BJP-AGP combine.
Orissa points to gains for Congress, up to 10 seats with BJP getting squeezed out in the 2-3 range with BJD getting around seven. The CNN-IBN poll showed Congress-led UDF on a comeback trail in Kerala with around 46% of the vote, up by 8%. According to the channel, in Maharashtra, Congress-NCP seem to have a vote share of 47% which comes at the cost of BJP-Shiv Sena.
According to the Star News-Nielsen exit poll, while there is not much to separate the two alliances, it points to SP and BSP getting 24 and 25 seats in UP. Congress is predicted to get 10 seats, BJP would get 16 and RLD four. This is quite a change from the political scene that prevailed in UP both in 2004 and in the 2006 assembly polls. In Maharashtra, the channel said BJP and Shiv Sena would get 26.
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